Comments for Polly Morgan

Comment on The Victorian Senate Count – Why it’s premature to call the final spot for the DLP. by Tony Zegenhagen

Tony Zegenhagen — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 09:17:35 +0000

Well Polly we might have been right with the DLP holding an old vote and getting up in Vic but I was really surprised over the last two days how quickly FF overtook the liberals in SA.
(obviously Stephen lacks knowledge of the DLP history in Victoria hence his comparison with the LDP (who without any indication gained a large vote)

Bob day has come from well behind to overtake that Liberals which was well discussed during the preference deals on who would go where.

The General idea was that FF had their best chance in SA.
The real winners are the voters though and with all the tight tussles between like minded candidates there is no doubt that proportional representation works.

Comment on The Victorian Senate Count – Why it’s premature to call the final spot for the DLP. by polly

polly — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 06:50:57 +0000

@Tony – I agree that the postals will probably tend to favour more established parties over the newer parties (although FF may do alright because they have a good position on the ballot paper). I guess the question is will they break for Senator McGauran or not? Although I *strongly* disagree with much of your party’s platform (as I’m sure you really disagree with my political beliefs which are at the Green end of political spectrum), I agree your Vic team has done a really good job with preference negotiations once again, and no one ought to be surprised if you do win after Peter Kavanagh’s victory in Western Victoria and with how close you came to victory in Northern metropolitan in the 2006 state election.

Comment on The Victorian Senate Count – Why it’s premature to call the final spot for the DLP. by Tony Zegenhagen

Tony Zegenhagen — Wed, 25 Aug 2010 06:35:59 +0000

The DLP is one minor party that seems to hold or increase their vote on postals etc.
I think the DLP will hold on and win. Newer parties like the LDP/Sex party will drop off and all of the FF/CDP/One Nation will flow to the DLP candidate before getting to McGuaran.
No I think his in. The team that worked on his preferences have calculated well and I have no doubts that John Madigan will be off to Canberra

Comment on The Victorian Senate Count – Why it’s premature to call the final spot for the DLP. by polly

polly — Sun, 22 Aug 2010 07:25:02 +0000

Yes, the ALP have clearly lost 1-1.5% off their primary, and the Coalition have probably lost up to 1% off their primary due to confusion with the LDP. It really could change the outcome this time. I think Liberals for Forests also got 2% in the Vic senate in 2001. I definitely hope the ALP win, but if they don’t, I’d prefer to see Senator McGauran returned than either of the DLP or Family First. I think both postal votes, and the fairly high vote for the Shooters and Fishers party may see the Libs pull ahead at the critical split.
This is another clear example of why above the line voting (or at least, group voting tickets) should be abolished.

Comment on The Victorian Senate Count – Why it’s premature to call the final spot for the DLP. by Stephen Luntz

Stephen Luntz — Sun, 22 Aug 2010 06:53:15 +0000

Repeating what I said on Polly’s facebook:

I largely agree Polly, but there is one mistake – BTLs have already been included here. The AEC (as of 2004 or 2007 can’t remember which) counts BTLs on the night to the party that has the number one – so BTLs for Richard (or Janet, Nam etc…) are included in the 14.4 we currently have.

At them moment the last spot looks like a 4 way contest – DLP, Fielding, McGuaran and Thow. I’d say the most likely of these is McGauran – for two reasons. Firstly I think the postals etc will favour the majors, although I should really refresh my memory on past results before saying that. Moreover, the ABC calculator assumes all these btls will go the way of the party’s ticket. BTLs from the LDP for example will bleed away from the DLP to everyone else. As they are more dependent on votes from other tickets than any of the other contenders they’re very vulnerable to this.

At this point my order of likelihoood would be McGuaran, Fielding, Madigan and Thow last, but any of them could do it.

Thanks for calling me brilliant – one of my less brilliant calls recently has been that Fielding had no chance once preferences were lodged. I still think he probably won’t make it but I was clearly premature. My major mistake was that I thought the LDP would do very badly given their ballot position, but they seem strangely unaffected.

The situation where both the DLP and LDP attract a lot of voters who think they are voting for a major party is a serious problem. In the House their votes end up where they intend, but in the Senate they can provide a couple of percent for rightwing fruitcakes.

Comment on The Victorian Senate Count – Why it’s premature to call the final spot for the DLP. by Jo Heard

Jo Heard — Sun, 22 Aug 2010 03:34:03 +0000

Thanks for the laugh Lee. I know all my friends who voted Sex Party did so below the line. Unfortunately we are NSW so can’t help..

Comment on The Victorian Senate Count – Why it’s premature to call the final spot for the DLP. by Cath

Cath — Sun, 22 Aug 2010 02:29:04 +0000

I hope the DLP get the last spot. To find out more about the DLP and their policies go to http://www.dlp.org.au. The DLP is pro family, pro life and pro the working person.

Comment on ACT Democrats senate preferences – Wrong and stupid by Bob

Bob — Sun, 22 Aug 2010 01:44:14 +0000

Hi Polly

Interesting debate you have going, keep up the good work.

I thought that you might want to see some of the other motivations behind the ACT Democrats. Here is a very interesting post from Norvan Vogt, Darren’s predecessor and the man in charge last election, when the “love was lost” between the two parties

http://norvan.net/uncategorized/a-dirty-deal/

I think that you are your readers will find it interesting.

All the best

Bob

Comment on The Victorian Senate Count – Why it’s premature to call the final spot for the DLP. by polly

polly — Sun, 22 Aug 2010 01:16:05 +0000

@Lee – I think that that will help the ALP pick up the last spot. The Greens will also get a very strong BTL vote (they’re already over quota without BTLs). It wouldn’t surprise me to see the Greens get 15%+ after BTLs are counted. Postals also favour the majors, so the ALP could reach a quota for the final spot with Greens excess, Sex Party and Democrats preferences (the Dems in Victoria went straight to the ALP and didn’t split ticket). I also think the Liberals may pull ahead of the DLP (as they should also do well in postals) at the final split between these two parties.

Comment on The Victorian Senate Count – Why it’s premature to call the final spot for the DLP. by Lee Davis-Thalbourne

Lee Davis-Thalbourne — Sun, 22 Aug 2010 00:28:26 +0000

Strangely, it looks like the big wildcard is the Sex Party – In Antony Green’s analysis, they’re hanging in quite impressively right up to near the end. If the Sex Party gets enough below-the-line votes (and admittedly, almost everyone I know who voted for Sex opted to go down below (sorry, that was terrible! And Awesome!), their preferences might shift things further towards Labour.