The Victorian Senate Count – Why it’s premature to call the final spot for the DLP.
If the election night results for the Victorian senate are taken as indicative of the final outcome, then the DLP's John Madigan could win the final spot. Antony Green's site has a breakdown of the current numbers, which shows a DLP win on the current numbers, with 2 ALP, 1 Green, 1 Liberal and 1 National senators also being elected (note - that numbers and predictions in that link will almost certainly change as it's updated with the latest results).
In Victorian Senate contests over at least the last 15 years, the DLP has doubled its vote when it has drawn a spot to the left of the ALP on the ballot paper. They have also polled significantly higher whenever they have drawn a spot ahead of the ALP in the lower house seats they have contested over that period of time. This has occurred in the 2010 election, where the DLP's vote has more than doubled to 2.23% (on the current count).
| Year | DLP Victorian Senate Vote |
| 1998 | 1.05% |
| 2001 | 2.28% |
| 2004 | 1.94% |
| 2007 | 1.03% |
| 2010 | 2.23% |
The DLP have also shown once again what great preference negotiators they are (they won a spot in the Victorian upper house on about 2% of the vote in the 2006 election thanks to good preference deals). The DLP have a strong flow of preferences from the other right-wing micro parties.
However, it is seriously premature for anyone to call that final spot for the DLP.
Below the Line votes (UPDATE 22/08/2010) - Greens psephologist, Stephen Luntz has let me know that the initial primaries for BTL votes have already been counted, which makes this closer than I first thought - although we'll have to wait to see how BTL preferences flow, as they could go anywhere) should favour the Greens and push them further above quota, and their surplus vote, plus the Sex party and the residual Australian Democrats vote, may end up being enough to give the ALP the final spot.
Postals and pre-poll will favour the majors, and in Antony Green's current prediction (which shows the DLP getting elected on last night's figures) the split between the Liberals and the DLP when the Liberals are eliminated is less than 20000 votes. This should narrow rather than increase, and it's more likely that the Liberals will end up ahead of the DLP than behind them.
At this stage, I think its likely the DLP will end up losing in Victoria (although they could fluke it in on preferences). If I was going to make a prediction at this stage, I would pick Victoria electing the third ALP candidate to the final spot, giving Victoria a final tally of 3 ALP, 1 Green, 1 Liberal and 1 National. However, even if the ALP doesn't win the final spot, I think the Liberals are far more likely to pull ahead of the DLP at the crucial split and take the final spot.
