30 November 06 - 18:53ALP may lose 2nd upper house seat in Southern metro - or possibly beat the Greens

The count is taking a while to be updated, but it looks like the ALP's Evan Thornley is going to struggle to get the final spot up for grabs in Southern Metropolitan. It's quite possible that Southern Metro will return 3 Libs, 1 ALP and 1 Green, as the Liberals are doing well in postals.
Some are speculating that the ALP has really hurt themselves in Southern Metro by preselecting the controversial Khalil Eideh to the safe second position on their ticket for Western Metropolitan. It will be worth someone's time checking the booth by booth breakdown for Southern metro when it becomes available. The ALP's vote in the lower house district of Caulfield has dropped significantly from 35.02% in 2002 to 28.99% in 2006, and Caulfield Liberal MP, Helen Shardey has been running hard on the issue.
If the Libs defeat the ALP for the final seat, then the ALP will not have total control of the upper house, with only 20 MPs out of 40. The balance of power would then be shared between the Greens and the Nationals (each with 2 MPs).
UPDATE:
Another possibility is that if the Liberal vote continues to improve, and the Greens vote continues to fall as postal votes come in, and BTL votes exhaust, then the combined Greens/Democrats vote will fall short of a quota, and Evan Thornley will get elected on People Power and Liberal preferences. (via Andrew Landeryou).
UPDATE 2:
It's going to really depend on what people do with the BTL votes, as it's that close.
Pollbludger has a couple of really good threads on this, with comments from Antony Green. It also discusses why the upperhouse.info calculators are inaccurate for the situation that has developed in Southern metro.
They are well worth a read:
www.pollbludger.com/432 (latest thread)
www.pollbludger.com/431 (earlier thread with some good commentary).

I'd imagine that there will be recounts, and possibly challenges, especially given that the outcome will decide whether or not the ALP retains control of the upper house.

UPDATE 3
The DLP is still in with a chance of picking up the final seat in Western Victoria, due to the increase in the Greens vote in recent counting, which puts them ahead of the third ALP candidate, Elaine Carbines. So this seat could go between the ALP, DLP or (less likely depending on the order in which groups get eliminated) the Greens.

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29 November 06 - 22:21Is it safe?

Poor Olav (my better half) has just had a painful trip to the dentist. He has to go back next week for another round of work.The anesthetic has just worn off, so he''s dulling the pain by watching Monty Python on DVD (always a good remedy for what ails you). He's had a lot of bad luck over the last couple of years with his teeth - he ended up having to get a crown and a bridge towards the end of his chemotherapy about 18 months ago. Luckily, this time around it's nothing that expensive, but he's had over an hour of drilling, so it hasn't been nice. If you seem him around at all, feel free to give him a hug.

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28 November 06 - 23:45Carlton finally wins something and goodbye Naomi

Carlton footballer Anthony Koutoufides has won Dancing With The Stars, which means someone from Carlton has finally won a competition, and Today Tonight will no longer be the same, now that Naomi Robson decided to quit as host, after being involved in several controversies throughout the year. Today Tonight without Naomi will be like watching the Jerry Springer Show without Jerry. Of course, I'm sure we'll see Naomi again, and when I caught the train this evening I saw several people clutching copies of this afternoon's mX with a smiling Naomi on the front cover and a headline that said that she could become the Aussie version of Oprah. What a scary thought.

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28 November 06 - 10:01State Election: Closest undecided seats

The VEC has a list of the closest undecided seats.
I'll write some more on the interesting changes in the Assembly when I get a chance, however, from these results it looks like Tammy Lobato, Anne Eckstein, Dympna Beard and Maxine Morand have run excellent local campaigns - it was widely expected that the ALP would clearly lose these seats in the outer east on an anti-tolls backlash, and the fact that it is so close is to their credit, especially after all the campaign resources the Liberals poured into these areas. Oh, and I've read some speculation from people that Tammy Lobato is ahead thanks to the high Greens vote (at 10.48%) in her seat, but the Greens did much better in 2002, with 12.47% and have copped a 2% swing there (make it 2.5% because they have the donkey vote this time), so that isn't the reason. The Greens ususally poll well in hills seats, so they must be disappointed to see themselves go backwards here.

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26 November 06 - 18:52In other news...

It was really nice to catch up with people at Penny's birthday party last night. I would liked to have stayed longer.
Dave and Penny's house is really nice.
Everytime I see Sophie and Aaron's son, Caelan, I can't get over how tall he is - he's very cute.
I've been taking it easy today and have spent a large chunk of the afternoon watching the cricket.

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26 November 06 - 17:50State Election: Dems Results - Ouch!

I haven't talked about how we (the Democrats) went in the State Election, so I will now.
We had a good strategy with a good result in preference negotiations, but our primary vote was way too low to take advantage of them.
Paul Kavanagh put his heart and soul into the campaign in Southern metro, but in the end he didn't have the resources he needed to put a dent in the Greens primary vote, and we got swamped.
We ended up with the following votes:
Southern metro: 1.67%
Eastern metro: 1.32%
South Eastern metro: 1.28%
Northern metro: 1.11%
Western metro: 0.93%

Our preferences look critical in getting the Greens over the line in some upper house seats, as they really struggled with preferences in this campaign.
The results in the State Election do not really provide any indication on the Federal campaign, we have historically - with the exception of the Fed 2004 election - polled 4-6% higher in federal elections in the senate than we have in the Victorian upper house (compare Fed 96 we got about 10.5% in the senate, and 5.5% in the 96 Vic election, in the 98 Fed Election we got about 10% in the senate and 6.81% in the Vic 99 election, and in 2001 we got 7.82% in the senate and 1.79% in the vic 2002 election), which means that the Morgan Senate Poll which has us on 5.5% in Victoria looks about right (Morgan also had us on only 2% in the Victorian upper house in a poll taken within a week or two of their senate poll - so the classic discrepancy between our state and federal performance is showing up in the opinion polls).

When it comes to next year, we have the advantage of having lower house candidates, and better polling booth coverage and local recognition that goes with having lower house candidates, as well as an incumbent Senator with a personal profile in Lyn Allison, and a much better budget for the campaign. It will be a tough ask, but it's certainly not impossible - especially given that the Howard government's control of the senate will be a big campaign issue in 2007, and will get media attention.

Family First polled about 3.8% in the Vic upperhouse this time around, so the challenge will be for parties like the Democrats and the Greens is to get preferences from the ALP and the Libs ahead of Family First - otherwise there is a real risk that they could repeat their 2004 success and get another senator in Victoria.

What we need to do is really increase the visibility of the party over the next year, and emphasise our importance as a check on the government in the Senate. This will of course, be a very big ask, but I don't think it is impossible.

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26 November 06 - 14:39The Greens in the state election

Greens primaries as of before 1:30pm today:
South Eastern metro: 6.94%
Southern metro: 15.67%
Western metro: 9.24%
Eastern metro: 10.41%
Northern metro: 16.33%
Eastern Victoria: 9.01%
Northern Victoria: 6.92%
Western Victoria: 8.13%

Their statewide average in the upper house is 10.24% with just over 75% of the vote counted, whereas it was 10.87% in the upper house in 2002, so they have had a small overall swing against them.
The Greens should win the final seat in Northern metro on Democrats preferences if they don't get the quota in their own right. This is good news, because if they end up stranded short of the quota, the DLP will win the final seat after getting 4.8% of the primary vote and getting preferences from - with the exception of the Democrats - all of the other candidates ahead of the Greens. So Northern metro should go 3 ALP, 1 Greens, and 1 Lib.

Southern metropolitan is looking very complicated. It will either go 2 ALP, 2 Liberals, and 1 Green or 2 ALP, 3 Liberals. I'd think the Greens would get elected on the combined Green and Democrats vote, but the complication is added by the ALP being just below the quota they need for 2 seats outright, and the People Power preferences going to the number 2 ALP candidate, Evan Thornley ahead of the Greens. This will depend on how the Greens/Dems vote goes in the postal vote count. Historically, the Liberals do well in postal votes, but on the other hand, most of these would have been cast before the last week of the campaign, where the Greens had disasterous media over their decision to run split tickets in some lower house seats. I think the Greens will fall over the line and pick up the final seat in Southern metro - so that will be 2 ALP, 2 Lib, 1 Green.
Eastern metro is 2 ALP, 2 Lib and the final seat way too close to call between the Libs and the Greens, but the Libs may get over the line if they do well in postal votes.
Western metro - I think that the ALP is more likely to win the final seat (giving them 4 and the Libs 1) at the expense of the Greens. The problem for the Greens is that the combined Greens/Democrat vote is currently too low to put them ahead of the ALP, and everyone else goes to the ALP ahead of them, so their preferences give the ALP the final seat. They need to have the ALP finish behind both them and the Liberals to be able to harvest the ALP overflow to take the final seat.

South Eastern metro very clearly goes 3 ALP and 2 Lib.

I don't think the Greens will win any seat in the non metro regions, with the Nationals picking up the final seat in Eastern Victoria, (so it will go 2 ALP, 2 Lib, 1 Nat), Northern Victoria going 2 ALP, 2 Lib and 1 Nat, and Western Victoria going 3 ALP and 2 Lib.

If this happens they ALP retains control of the upperhouse with 21 seats out of 40. The Liberals get 15, the Nats get 2, and the Greens get 2. If the Greens pick up the final seat in Western metro, then the balance of power will be shared between the Nationals and the Greens.

In the lower house the Greens will have to do very well in the postal votes to take Melbourne from Bronwyn Pike - it's not impossible for the Greens to win, but it looks like the ALP will hang on in Melbourne. The Greens won't win in Richmond, Brunswick or Northcote.

UPDATE: In Western Victoria, the last seat is a battle between the ALP and the DLP. If the Greens finish ahead of the ALP, then the ALP prerferences will elect the DLP candidate (who has just over 2.5% of the primary vote, but once again gets preferences from everyone bar the Socialist Alliance who go straight to the Greens). If the ALP finishes ahead of the Greens, then Greens preferences will see the ALP get a 3rd MP in Western Victoria. With this outcome, and the likely win in Western metro, the ALP will retain control of the upper house. I'd actually much rather see the ALP retain control of the upper house than the DLP getting seats and ending up with the balance of power, so all I can say is - go Elaine Carbines in Western Victoria.

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26 November 06 - 12:51State Election: Some stats worth commenting on

There have been a few interesting results in some seats that are worth commenting on. Note these are based on figures on the VEC website as of the Sunday 12:07pm, they will of course change a little over the remaining count.

Firstly, at the close of counting last night, the DLP was on 4.88% of the primary vote in Northern metropolitan (hopefully this will go down a bit more as the remaining booths come in).

The CEC were on 4.77% in Broadmeadows District. That's another WTF (along with the DLP in Northern metro).
Family First got 12.42% of the vote in Kororoit District (Caroline Springs).

The combined Family First and DLP vote is higher in Northern metro than the combined Family First, DLP and Christian Democratic Party vote in South Eastern and Eastern metro.
South Eastern metro:
FF: 5.12%
CDP 0.64%
DLP 0.88%
total: 6.64%

Northern metro:
DLP: 4.83%
Family First: 2.69%
total: 7.52%

Eastern metro:
FF: 4.38%
DLP: 1.39%
total: 5.77%

FF polled better in South Eastern metro than Eastern metro and Eastern, but being in position A on the ballot paper is probably worth 1% to FF in South Eastern. I'm highlighting this vote in Northern metro, because, firstly, no one expected to see the DLP do so well there (obviously there's method to John Mulholland's wackiness, because even though he lives in Malvern East, he has run in Northern metro and polled spectacularly well), and some people have been insisting to me that the Greens do badly in South Eastern metro because it's the "bible belt" of Melbourne, but the combined vote of the Christian parties is higher in the Greens heartland region of Northern Metropolitan than anywhere else in the state.

In metropolitan Melbourne in the lower house, the Greens vs Family First vote roughly forms a donught on the map of Melbourne, with the Greens having a concentrated vote in the inner suburbs that drops off rapidly the further out you go until you start hitting the Dandenongs , where their hills vote in seats like Gembrook and Monbulk kicks in. Contrast this with Family First, who have done really well in the growth corridors in the north-west and south-east and east (rather than just being confined to the outer eastern and south-eastern suburbs). They won't win anything in the upper house.

In Gippsland South (Peter Ryan's seat), Jo McCubbin has done well, on 7.05%, and has outpolled Jackie Dargaville from the Greens who is on 6.05% (and down from over 11.72% for the Greens in 2002). Jo is a really nice person, so I'm really happy for her, and I'm also really pleased to see the anti windfarm Greens candidate Jackie Dargaville suffer such a huge swing.

The results of the upper house won't be know for another week or two - and there are some seats that are way too close to call, but the ALP has a real chance of keeping control of the upper house (especially as the ALP may pick up 4 seats in Western metro on the back of Liberal preferences).

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26 November 06 - 01:44DLP vote in northern metro!

WTF?
The DLP are currently on 4.88% of the vote in Northern metro! Yikes.

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24 November 06 - 13:59Paul Kavanagh in the media

Paul Kavanagh, the Democrats lead candidate in the Southern Metropolitan region, got a write-up in yesterday's edition of The Age. He has been campaigning for over a year, and has a chance of getting elected on preferences if he can get a solid primary vote, as he receives preferences from People Power and the ALP (via People Power), and the Greens.

Here are some scenarios where he could be elected (brought to you thanks to the calculators at upperhouse.info:
Scenario 1 (where the Greens just miss out on the quota).
Scenario 2(where the Greens get more than the quota at the expense of the ALP, and push them below 2 quotas in their own right).

Paul still needs to get in the range of 5-5% primary vote for these scenarios to become possible, but we're polling 5.5% in the Senate in Victoria at the moment, and he will have strong booth coverage, so he is maximising his chance of harvesting the vote out there for the party.

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21 November 06 - 22:12Farmer Dave blogs

David Graham, the openly gay former Big Brother contestant, farmer and Young Nationals Federal Membership officer, now has a blog. It's well worth a read.

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17 November 06 - 19:03Balance of Power Breakfast

The Age has a brief online video report on the Balance of Power Breakfast that was held earlier this week. The Democrats Eastern Metropolitan candidate Craig Beale spoke on our behalf at the breakfast.
Peter Ryan must have been pretty miffed at the Vic Nats being grouped with the minor parties.
Naturally enough, the report chose to highlight an ambush question on the Greens lead candidate Greg Barber about heroin injecting rooms.
I'm really not a fan of the Greens, but the way they cut most of Greg Barber's answer was pretty rough.
That corflute John Mulholland from the DLP draped over the podium looked more than a little retro, which is trendy at the moment -although I doubt he's the sort of guy to start jiving to Jet or Wolfmother.

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16 November 06 - 09:24Geeking the Victorian State Election

For those of you, like me, who are psephologically inclined, there are some really good resources for the State Election available online.

Of course, for the nuts and bolts of what's going on, and for the numbers in previous elections, you can't go past: www.vec.vic.gov.au. The VEC wesbite is very good, and it's mostly easy to navigate. I think it's far better than the AEC's site, so kudos to the programmers behind it .

Who else grew up watching election nights covered by the ABC? I certainly did, and my Mum usually left the TV on till when ever it finished. The great thing about the ABC coverage is not the people they get to front it, but the fact that they have the best election analyst in the country, Antony Green, crunching the numbers for them. His guide to to the Victorian State Election is well worth checking out.

William Bowe's site, The Poll Bludger is for those of you who want some day-by-day non-partisan and intelligent analysis on the key seats, and the impact of preferencing decisions.

Upperhouse.info, run by "The Speaker" is wonderful. There are online calculators available that calculate the distribution of above the line preferences for upper house regions. Great stuff. BTW, if you don't use IE as your browser, you may need to hit enter once you've entered in your percentages for the candidates, rather than the clicking the submit button.

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13 November 06 - 20:01Karaoke will never be the same

Scientists at CSIRO's Textile and Fibre Technology divison have created the Wearable Instrument Shirt (WIS). The WIS allows the wearer to play air guitar by using motion sensors on the shirt to map and transmit the notes the wearer mimes to a computer which outputs the right sounds. How awesome!
On the other hand, think of the consequences. Pub karaoke will become even more terrifying. Can you imagine how much more horrific Khe San or Eagle Rock will sound if someone is wearing a WIS while slurring their way through half-remembered song lyrics? Stairway to Heaven doesn't even bear thinking about.

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09 November 06 - 21:53State Election: Vote for Daniel in South Eastern metro and quick analysis of Southern Metro

Hey, all the Monash Uni-connected readers out there who read this blog and know Daniel Berk: well, if you live in the South Eastern Metropolitan Region of Victoria's upper house, you can now vote for Daniel at the State Election. The South Eastern Metro region covers most of Melbourne's south eastern suburbs, and includes the following lower house districts: Mount Waverley, Clayton, Mulgrave, Mordialloc, Dandenong, Lyndhurst, Narre Warren North, Narre Warren South, Cranbourne, Carrum and Frankston.

You can vote for Daniel by putting a 1 above the line in the Democrats box on the ballot paper, or voting below the line, sticking a 1 in the box next to Daniel's name, and the number at least 4 more boxes sequentially (for a minimum total of 5 boxes filled in with sequential numbers).
If you don't know Daniel, and live in the South Eastern Metro region of Victoria, and read this blog, then please consider voting for Daniel. He's a really decent person, and he's campaigning on helping problem gamblers (which is a huge issue in the south-east, and particularly in the City of Monash, which has the highest loss per gaming machine in Victoria), better public transport (in a region where most residents do not have access to train, tram or high-frequency bus services), and more effective use of state government and Federal (GST) revenue for services such as schools, hospitals, childcare and residential care. He's also a great friend.

Our lead candidate for South Eastern metro is Dr Karen Bailey, a medical biosciences researcher, environmentalist, and a mad-keen Saints supporter. She's also currently a Deputy National President of the Democrats. She lives in Seaford and is running hard on health, education and public transport issues. These are really critical in the South Eastern metro region, composed as it is of new, infrastructure-poor suburbs with young families, and older suburbs that have been hit hard by the gutting of Victoria's manufacturing industry over the last thirty years. She'd make a really good MP for this area, and it's not impossible for her to win off the back of preferences if the ALP vote drops from 2002, which is quite likely given the boost their vote received after the Robert Dean fiasco in the 2002 state election, and a predicted anti-Eastlink tolls backlash (although I expect any backlash to be larger in Eastern Metro where the Libs have been heavily pushing this issue).

Our candidate with the best chance of putting in a strong performance, and possibly winning, though, is Paul Kavanagh in Southern Metropolitan. I might blog a bit more about his chances if I get some spare time in the next few days, but it basically comes down to a combination of a favourable preferences position, coupled with a lower influence from Family First and the DLP, who will get less votes in this region than they're expected to get in Eastern and South Eastern metro. If Paul can get a solid primary vote (and he's putting in a hell of a lot of work on this), and People Power polls a little better than expected (e.g. they get 2-3%, instead of 1-2%), then with the ALP overflow, he'd have a shot at pulling ahead of the 3rd Liberal candidate. I do think we'll poll well enough to see the Greens elected in Southern metro if we can't get into a winnable position ourselves, although this does depend on how close they end up being to the quota.

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07 November 06 - 20:58Penn Jillette podcasts

You can subscribe to podcasts of Penn Jillette's radio show via the website or iTunes.


Cool!

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07 November 06 - 18:43Groovy! Evil Dead: The Musical

Evil Dead has been turned into a musical (via Irene Gallo).
Now, that's something I'd really love to see make it over here one day.

As teenagers, my brothers and I went through a stage of hiring every trashy horror movie we could get away with, from the Exorcist and the Omen to A Nightmare on Elm Street (if you sneak up behind me and whisper 'Tina' in a creepy, Robert Englund-sounding voice I may still jump), and Peter Jackson's Bad Taste (how can any self-respecting teenager resist the urge to watch something that has the statement "Banned in Queensland" proudly emblazoned across its cover?). Really good or really bad, it didn't really matter to us, we'd sit in the lounge room with the lights out, glued to the tv, with a handy supply of diet coke and sugar-coated pop corn and watch video after video.
Our favourite horror flicks from the late 80s and early 90s were definitely Evil Dead II and it's sequel, Army of Darkness which are masterpieces of the splatstick genre. They also star one of my favourite actors of all time, Bruce Campbell, so of course, the concept of an Evil Dead musical has particular appeal to me.

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06 November 06 - 11:42linux.conf.au 2007

Linux conf is on in Sydney next year in mid-January.
The virtualisation miniconf looks particularly interesting (assuming you're an IT professional or a geek).

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05 November 06 - 11:47GPFS and stuff

I'm going to be away in Sydney most of next week at a training course on IBM's GPFS.
Work's been really busy, and I haven't had much time for anything else, but we did really enjoy Josh and Karen's wedding, and Olav and I had dinner with Aaron and Sophie last night. It was really good to catch up with them.

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